Lentils: Looking for the lows   Lentil prices have been under pressure but should soon be close to their harvest lows. In fact, Lairds are normally up ticking by now because their typical seasonal tendency has already turned positive, but Crimsons tend to be later.   Both have underlying support zones that should provide underpinnings, and prices probably will not test the low sides. When Lentils are in a bull mode, the Long Term Chart indicates that pullbacks tend to be minor and short-lived.   As well, while uptrend lines have been drawn, Lentils tend to have relatively short term trends that rarely extend into the next marketing year, although major long term directional thrusts can run for years. Thus, short term confidence should be on the support levels, not on the existing trends.   Finally, the Value Ratio indicates that Crimsons are attractively priced compared to Canola for farmers wanting to sell crops that are Dear while holding Bargains for future recovery. This could encourage heavier Crimson sales this autumn thereby slowing their initial pace of price recovery, more like the 15 Year Average than the 5 Year.   The long term outlook continues to look very good. Lentil prices should be much higher in January.

August 27, 2020

Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis