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February 22, 2012
Feed Barley: Corn could fuel a surprise
The Alberta average elevator price for Feed
Barley continues to trade quietly sideways. In
fact Alberta Barley is roughly the same price
that it was back in May 2011. In contrast,
Corn futures expressed in Canadian dollars
are well down from last May’s levels. Is this a
risk?
Some might worry that this relative
performance difference could make Feed
Barley vulnerable. However, on the basis of
the historical value ratio, Feed Barley
pricing has simply gone from ultra cheap
levels to now be a comparative bargain.
Moreover, Feed Barley’s current value will
allow it to participate in any Corn strength.
Corn futures continue to trade upon support
at the CDN$6/bu level and are now testing
their third potential downtrend line. These
three downtrends could be a potentially
bullish phenomenon known as “fan lines”
whereby a break above the last one could
trigger a rally up towards the old highs.
This means that Corn deserves close
scrutiny and, if it goes, Alberta Feed Barley
could be pulled along.
Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis