Prairie Crop Charts
Pulses
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Home Grains Oilseeds Pulses Other Crops Special Studies Archive Contact Canadagrain Need a Speaker?     If your club, event or association needs a speaker, ask me.    As an analyst and the author of Prairie Crop Charts, I can go beyond broad market commentary to tailor my presentation to feature crops of special interest to you and your audience.    Give me a call! Harold AGJ Davis (204) 479-4637 weekdays 8:30AM to 3:00PM central time June 10, 2013 Peas
Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis
Peas: Momentum issues   In recent years, each Pea variety has exhibited unique price behaviour and each chart looks very different, but, at present, they happen to share the same feature - stalling.   Delivered elevator Green Peas have a failed attempt at new highs coupled with both a momentum curve break and a trend  break. Green Pea prices appear to have topped and could soon be falling.   The average price for Yellow Peas at elevators has backed down from its attempted breakout at $9/bu and this suggests some commercial caution. However, multiple zones of underlying support and firm New Crop prices imply that the recent downdraft may be more hesitation than weakness.   Feed Peas have been going sideways for six months and no longer enjoy any trend. Quiet markets often lull participants into complacency. So when something develops to upset the applecart, volatility could return with a vengeance.
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January 30, 2014 Dry Edible Beans
Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis
Edible Beans: Not bargains   Edible Bean prices have remained firm in recent months when other commodities have faltered. Can they hold out?   While Edibles seem to have a pricing mechanism that is all their own, the sort of good land they grow in introduces the prospect of competition from other crops in the annual quest for the highest net dollar yield per acre. This year, Edible values seem to compare very favourably to a possible alternative crop like Soybeans, and Edible acreage could be
maintained or even expand. If so, would this pressure future prices?   Looking at the Value Ratio comparing Navy Beans to Soybeans, note how often and widely it swings! In part, this jumpiness might be a function of a few large “flat price” bidders dominating the Navy market and other Edibles for months at a time before making major and abrupt pricing adjustments to some new level. Edible Bean growers should not be complacent.
March 04, 2014 Lentils
Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis
Laird Lentils: Current softness is not convincing   The present downdraft in Laird Lentil average delivered elevator prices may be temporary.   The chart contains a reminder that Laird Lentil prices also hit a short term air pocket in February last year. More importantly, the steep price drop last August uncovered strong buying lurking in the high teens and Lairds made a quick reversal.
That still looks like an important bottom. Coupled with already below average price levels and a tendency to trade sideways at this time of year, it is hard to make a bear case for Lairds.   Discouragement may be spilling over from the logistical nightmare effecting the pricing of other crops, but what will happen when transportation begins to return towards normal? Lairds (and Estons too) could be short term bargains.
March 17, 2014 Peas [Feed]
Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis
Feed Peas: Not as expensive as they seem. Bottoming   Saskatchewan FOB Farm Feed Pea prices seem to be carrying a big premium to Feed Wheat and Feed Barley values. Given the history of this three-way relationship, it would be easy to imagine that Feed Peas could slip further. However, Feed Peas
can also be compared to both Corn and Soy Meal futures expressed in Canadian dollars, and their rallies make Feed Peas look cheap!   Feed Peas prices may not do much until other Prairie feed grains recover further, but the bottom has probably been found.
March 27, 2014 Crimson Lentils
Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis
Crimson Lentils: The behaviour of young bulls   A few weeks ago, Crimson Lentil prices overcame old resistance and surged upwards. This confirmed the base uptrend line and establishes that Crimsons are in an emerging bull market.   The seasonal tendency suggests that Crimsons could have a few more weeks of price gains, but some cautionary perspective is deserved. For example, note how often past
price jumps have been followed by sideways trading ranges. This is a characteristic behaviour and may occur again. Also, Crimson prices are closing in on both their arithmetic Average since 2005 and seasonal 9 yr Avg , so they do not feel “cheap” in a year when other Prairie commodities are struggling. This should produce enough acreage gains to cap the rise sometime later this spring. Finally note the location of 2013’s resistance zone which may be a factor again this year.
April 07, 2014 Green Peas
Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis
Green Peas: Holding support for the time being   Green Pea average prices are still above the important $9/bu support level and may stay there a few months longer. In the past week, New Crop prices have bounced higher which is encouraging, but they are $2 below old crop which suggests that commercials feel comfortable about future supplies. At
this time of year, the seasonal tendencies in the 5yr and 9 yr  Avg Prices are up until June and this could help awhile longer. However, Green Pea prices are typically very heavy in mid- summer and, given that current prices are well above average and may attract above average 2014 acreage, convergence towards Yellows and Feed Peas may be inevitable. Caution.
April 17, 2014 Yellow Peas
Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis
Yellow Peas: $6.50/bu target beginning to look conservative   Several price indicators combine to suggest that Yellow Pea prices seem to undergoing a positive reappraisal. First, note that New Crop prices are now right on top of Old Crop. This suggests a more competitive environment. That is a small
surprise given that Yellow Peas have been left behind by Soy Meal while Corn is pushing up from underneath. Peas look comparatively cheap considering their nutritional value. Finally, the seasonal tendency tends to help out at this time of year too. .
Pulses