Green Peas: So far, very normal   As they have in many years, Green Pea prices have retreated from their spring highs towards harvest lows. The typical seasonal tendency is a strong reminder that this annual process should end and be replaced by a rising market in early September.   In terms of alternatives, Saskatchewan Green Pea prices are not as competitive as North Dakota, but they are not far out of line and US prices are close their historical support. So, they should hold the line and not be a problem.   At the same time, farmers considering marketing options between crops coming off their fields this fall might be disappointed by lower than hoped Green Pea prices, but Green Pea’s current Value Ratios relative to CWRS and Canola are simply back close to what was “normal” in the 2014-18 period.   The Long Term Chart shows a variety of features that should all be supportive for Green Pea prices and arrest the decline promptly, but there is one possibility lower than the others. Just how big is this year’s crop? Given that the short term downtrend is still intact, prices could lose another $0.25/bu or even another $1/bu before turning up.   However, one thing is very clear. Specifically, the September harvest low is often $1-1.50/bu below early December prices. Moreover, good prices usually extend all the way to late May or early June. Avoid big calls, spread things out, patience can be rewarded.

August 24, 2020

Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis