Prairie Crop Charts
Oilseeds
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June 05, 2014 Mustard
Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis
Mustards: Three months of strong New Crop gains   This past winter, many thought that Mustards would enjoy expanded acreage in 2014 and, so, New Crop prices were at steep discounts to old. However, once prices for other crops started to recover from the darkest period of the logistical nightmare, Mustards found themselves in a competitive environment and rallied to keep up.   In recent weeks, despite softness in major markets, New Crop prices for Mustards have continued to gain ground. This suggests that commercials have been concerned about getting left behind and they responded aggressively. Was it enough?   Taking Brown Mustard as an example, at first blush, the New Crop average delivered elevator price of $0.298/lb does not seem generous when compared to the current cash price up at $0.34/lb. Yet both prices look very good when compared to the 10 year average of $0.251/lb. So, it seems likely that Brown Mustard’s 2014 acreage will be adequate.   Do not expect too much more in near term Mustard price gains.
July 09, 2014 Canola
Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis
Canola: A progression of stories   One advantage of studying charts is that you can spot when a fundamental story is old and has been replaced by a new driver.   From early 2013 until late 2013, Canola enjoyed lofty values compared to generics like Palm Oil. Part of Canola’s better relative performance was that one major importer was making use of Canola meal as a feed. So, Canola’s value was greater than its oil component. Eventually this came to an end and Canola dropped down in price to get into line with other oils again. However, the edible oil market is not to blame for Canola’s recent lethargy.   Between late 2013 and spring 2014, Canola’s relative performance actually lagged Palm Oil. Note that Palm Oil enjoys a possible long term uptrend and continues to hold its breakout above last year’s trading range. Canola’s poorer performance probably reflects the harsh influence of the Prairie logistical nightmare.   In recent weeks, the two edible oils seem to be falling back into step, but is Canola doing so at the right level? Note that Saskatchewan average delivered elevator prices for Canola are
about CDN$1.10/bu under North Dakota Canola. This compares poorly to their average Spread of only -CDN$0.10/bu.   What is that story all about?
July 11, 2014 Soybeans [Manitoba]
Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis
Soybeans: Under pressure but not a one-way street   The recent dramatic drop in Soybean prices is reminiscent of the 2013 retreat and, therefore, may not be finished yet. Back then, the bottom was not formed until Indian Soybean prices belatedly “threw in the towel” thereby indicating that capitulation was general, a good indicator of a true bottom. This remains to be seen.   Now, New Crop Manitoba Soybean prices are well below Old Crop and, once the deferred futures contracts become the nearby, important support levels may be broken. This could
keep sentiment on the defensive for awhile. However, the Manitoba Soybean’s Average Price chart contains two important features: first, prices have already dropped down towards the 8 year Average and are no longer expensive while, secondly, the 5 year Average prices do not run downhill in a smooth progression  to their typical mid-October lows.   Therefore, look for restoration of two-way trading in the near future, but it may feel more like a pause/reaction than lasting recovery.
July 16, 2014 Flax
Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis
Flaxseed: Caution strongly advised   Saskatchewan average delivered elevator prices for Flaxseed could be vulnerable. New Crop pricing has refused to endorse Old Crop levels and the difference is more than $2/bu. Moreover, Flaxseed is very expensive compared to Canola in
terms of the relative Value Ratio while the outright price spread of $4.50/bu rivals a previous historic high. Finally, Flaxseed’s 5 and 9 Year Average prices typically lose ground from July until September. Once current flooding concerns have been assessed by the market, there may be little holding up Flaxseed.
A Letter to our Readers    Starting August 1st, we are revising access to Prairie Crop Charts and it will become a subscriber supported site as of September 1st, 2014.   Prairie Crop Charts has been a free service for several years, and throughout this period we have enjoyed your comments, questions and regular readership. We hope that Prairie Crop Charts has provided a useful mix of forecast insights and clear facts that have helped inform your farm and agri-business decisions. However, the costs of data, IT and salaries have outstripped Internet advertising revenues and a change had to be made.    Going forward, readers who would like to continue reading Prairie Crop Charts will be asked to register to receive free access to the site for the month of August. Then, as of September 1st, Prairie Crop Charts will only be available to paying subscribers.    To register for your August free trial offer or become a September 1st subscriber, complete the Registration Form or call Canadagrain.com at 1-800-567-5671 or 1-204-942-1459.  Regards,  Harold Davis Author - Prairie Crop Charts
Site News and Special Offer for August   Prairie Crop Charts will soon be converting to a subscriber based service. As a special offer, users registering with Prairie Crop Charts will have free access to the site during the month of August. To obtain your free no obligation registration, complete and submit the registration form or call either 1-800-567-5671 or 1-204-942-15-459. As of September 1st, a paid subscription to Prairie Crop Charts will be required for continued access.
July 20, 2014 Sunflower
Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis
Sunflowers: A very slow transition   Sunflower prices have been slowly sliding for three whole years and might not be finished yet.   Despite the graceful underlying curve that captures the decelerating bear market in North Dakota Nu Sun average delivered elevator prices that should eventually set the stage for a big bull market, all oilseeds have to contend with ongoing weakness in Soybean Oil. Although the speed of Bean Oil’s recent decline is characteristic of the sort of “washout” that can exhaust a bear and leave it ripe for a trend change, no reversal has been registered to date.   Therefore, there is an important risk that this weakness could spill over into the Sunflower market. If so, Nu Sun average delivered elevator prices might erode towards the CDN$0.19/lb level. However, this might not necessarily pull Manitoba Sunflower FOB Farm prices lower because they seem to have avoided much of the volatility seen in other oilseed prices for the last year and may do so a little longer.
Oilseeds