Privacy Policy    Information is secured from sources believed to be reliable, but 100% accuracy cannot be guaranteed. For analytical purposes, some price data for illiquid markets may be  interpolated.    Persons associated with Canadagrain.com deal commercially with businesses active in Prairie grain markets and may hold positions on their own accounts in commodities discussed herein.    Prairie Crop Charts does not provide specific marketing advice or advice on trading opinions on futures and option contracts. Canadagrain.com, 958 – 167 Lombard Ave., Winnipeg, MB R3B 0V3, tel: (204) 942-1459  fax: (204) 942-7652 Site design & maintenance by Branscombe Consulting Copyright 2012 Canadagrain Copyright 2012 Canadagrain.com Reproduction and/or redistribution without permission are prohibited. Mobile Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis Planting Deliberations: Relative Values for Canola   Since harvest, many Prairie crops have traded “rich” to Canola. These other crops have been trading at above average value ratios when compared to Canola. For instance, in recent months Oat prices have been about 25% of the price of Canola which was generous compared to the recent average at 22% or the worst levels down at almost 16%. However, it now looks as if Oats and these other crops are losing this price premium (arrows) and Canola’s attractiveness is improving rapidly. This could be factor in 2012 planting intentions. Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis Mustards: An alarming downdraft   In recent days, Mustard prices have been under pressure. Price weakness is probably related to the Chinese decision not to accept any further Mustard meal from India. The trade may be thinking that this will slow Indian demand for Oriental Mustard and reduce Canadian exports to that country, thereby causing Prairie buyers to stand back and let prices drop. As a result, Oriental Mustard prices have plunged all the way down to their uptrend line.   Even the prices of other varieties are coming under pressure. Perhaps the trade is worried that growers will switch their acreage away from Oriental Mustard into increased production and supply of Yellow and Brown Mustard.   Maybe so, but, if China is looking for clean Oriental Mustard supplies, they might contact Canadian suppliers. At the same time, arguments can be made that Mustard prices are barely competitive with other crops in this year’s planting calculations, and lower prices will not assure future supplies.   This mix of variables could transform the normally staid and orderly Mustard market into something far more volatile. Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis Soybeans: Weakness replaced by a firming tone   CBOT Soybean prices expressed in Canadian dollars are clawing their way back from early December lows and have established clear zones of underlying support while Manitoba delivered elevator prices have enjoyed a rising bottoms line.  This is solid price action for an alleged bear market. Indeed, the pattern of recent lows in CBOT Soybeans in CDN$ is mildly suggestive of a “head and shoulders” bottom (S-H-S). If so, the tide might be changing in the Soybean market.   However, enthusiasm should be tempered by the very clear overhead resistance that could cap attempted rallies for some time to come. Yes, the tone is improving in the Soybean market, but there are no potential uptrends in Chicago composed of three or more points to match Manitoba Soybean prices yet. Stay tuned. Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis Canola: Looking for a sustainable uptrend   Following the downtrend break, the rally in Saskatchewan Canola delivered elevator average prices got ahead of itself. Canola prices are now marking time testing various zones of support or resistance. This stalling could produce some more minor weakness, but Canola is a good value among global edible oils and an uptrend could emerge in the weeks ahead.   Relative to European MATIF Rapeseed expressed in Canadian dollars, Canola prices have been left behind and look like a comparative bargain.   Turning to Soybean Oil prices in Canadian dollars, they continue the superior relative out performance against Canola they have enjoyed since September. This makes Bean Oil comparatively expensive and should help underpin Canola. At the same time, Bean Oil prices seem to be having difficulties maintaining downtrends, and this might be suggesting that the bear market in edible oils is getting very tired. Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis Sunflowers: Bear market nearly over   Manitoba delivered elevator Sunflower Seed prices have been retreating since last summer. However, these downtrends  could be ending very soon.   Looking at Manitoba Sunflower prices, Oilseeds have dropped from $0.40/lb to $0.30/lb or a loss of 33%, while Confectionary seeds gave up $0.06/lb or 18%. Sunflower Oilseed’s disproportionately greater weakness is probably attributable to the loss of its value premium over Canola.   In recent months, the price trends between Canola and NuSun Oilseeds have had a noticeable convergence. This strongly suggests that Sunflowers’ period of relative out- performance has been fully reversed and, therefore, Sunflowers’ bear market might now be over. Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis Flaxseed: Held aloft by Canola?   The chart picture for Flaxseed prices is not strong. Based on its own merits, Flaxseed could be interpreted as trading quietly in a potentially vulnerable situation.   Saskatchewan average delivered elevator prices for Flaxseed show a progression of gradually weaker rallies. In fact, the pace of the current “rally” is almost horizontal which suggests that there is little strength or positive momentum driving this market. Another interpretation looks to North Dakota prices expressed in Canadian dollars for leadership, but finds that they have broken their rising bottoms line and are trading defensively and listlessly on horizontal support. Hardly a robust situation.   What is holding Flaxseed prices up? In a word: Canola. By recent standards, Flaxseed is trading at bargain levels compared to Canola, and Flaxseed bears are probably being careful. However, it should be remembered that Flaxseed can and periodically does trade at a discount to Canola, especially when this value relationship is overpowered by unforeseen market developments.   In the Flaxseed market, tread very carefully. Chart analysis and commentary by Harold AGJ Davis Canola: Clearing away old features   Canola’s recent rally can now be summarized by an emerging uptrend line. This uptrend is actually slower than the uptrend from Sept.’10 to Feb.’11, and, therefore, should be considered realistic and potentially sustainable. However, new bull markets are not built in a day and some old chart features pose obstacles that must be overcome.   First and foremost, Canola average delivered elevator prices have to contend with the major downtrend in WCE Futures. This probably represents something of a psychological barrier that may cause the advance to temporarily stall before being cleared away. As well, Canola’s $12.50/bu delivered elevator average price was popular just before harvest and more than a few farmers would probably be delighted to have a second shot at it. This is how overhead resistance is created.    Taken together, the downtrend and resistance could slow Canola’s advance or cause some broadening out in the weeks ahead. However, the background environment still looks strong. Commercials continue to bid aggressively for Canola and the improving trend in Basis levels has not broken yet. This probably indicates that Canola’s global demand drivers are still intact.